Among other factors, the distribution of some $5 trillion of pandemic stimulus likely compelled the Federal Reserve to enact monetary policy to counter inflation. If financial tightening persists, investors might be urged to consider the long-term implications for the stock market in today’s post-pandemic world.
Macroeconomic theory suggests that without any outside intervention, the macroeconomy will self-adjust and return to its long-run state after short-term shocks. The decision for policymakers thus boils down to a cost-benefit analysis taking into account factors like intertemporality and risk tolerance — they can either wait and allow the economy to adjust organically, or sink resources into actively trying to stabilize the economy, taking on the risk of further destabilizing it.
Despite recent metrics around the globe showing severe production declines as a result of coronavirus, Chinese GDP growth continues to be one of the fastest among developed and developing nations. That’s not a new story. While the rest of the world experienced recessions and layoffs, China blew through the 2008-2012 years, reaching an all-time productivity growth peak of 11 percent in 2011. By all official accounts, China is on track to surpass aggregate U.S. output and take the mantle of economic hegemony within the next several decades.